Atlantic Eye: Lost lessons of the Cold War:
"Several strategic blunders in the past year have led to Russia's incursion into Georgia. A missile-defense shield, which even U.S. experts doubt works, has been sold to Poland and the Czech Republic as though it were Moses speaking down from the mountain. The West rushed to recognize Kosovo, caring nothing about Russia's sensitivities or those of the Abkhazians or South Ossetians or the implications of other folks seeking self-determination.
The biggest strategic blunder was not joining Russia in placing the missile-defense system in Azerbaijan. The Russians understood rightly -- keep your friends close, keep your enemies closer. But even a cynic knows the Russian plan bore an honest effort to build bridges.
Russia's response to Georgia is, in fact, a response to this series of perceived insults. Kosovo was the last drop -- but it all began to unravel with Azerbaijan. The U.S. rejection of the offer (see my column 'Putin's Bush-whack') convinced the Russians that the United States was being disingenuous about the intentions of the missile shield. It convinced Russia that it was not for Iran and the Middle East, but a Trojan horse against Russia. Many security experts in the United States -- and out -- agree with this assessment.
Had the United States -- and the European Union countries -- been on the ball, they would have used thethey would have used the European Union, not NATO -- at least initially -- to engender the expansion of stability. The Russians would not object to Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey being part of the EU. I have been told this up and down the chain of command in Moscow.
Russia wants to be a regional player and a global energy superpower. It wants to have influence over near markets. It wants to have global influence in oil, gas and energy security. Said a foreign minister to me, "Like the Monroe Doctrine, Russia wants to keep an eye on her backyard. The United States is mistaken to underestimate her will to do this." I echoed this in several of my last columns."
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
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