we are not a small economy. Exports are only 13 per cent of our GDP and while some will suffer due to a global recession, some sectors will benefit hugely from a weaker rupee. There is an enormous domestic demand for goods and services and hundreds of billions worth of infrastructure to build. Yes, capital will be scarce, but why don’t we also factor in the cost reduction because of crashing commodity prices? Because of falling crude prices, the Government could save Rs 100,000 crore this year alone on fuel and fertiliser subsidies; going ahead it could be two and a half times as much. Over the next few weeks, we see Inflation falling drastically, a cut in fuel prices, a drop in interest rates and the release of Pay Commission arrears. Households in India are heading for a much better year compared to the last couple, though of course those invested in stocks would rue the loss of their net worth. You are still looking at an economy on the up, and one that is uniquely positioned to fight back, and take advantage of this global crisis. But, for that, something has to inspire us to hunker down with confident stoicism, and fight back, much like Sundarji’s platoon on that second hill feature.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
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